Taking two principal variables affecting the country, one within the country’s control, the growth in electricity supply relative to demand, and one to a large extent outside of the country’s control, economic growth, a 2×2 matrix or scenario game board can be constructed. This matrix presents a best-case scenario, a worst-case scenario, as well as two intermediate scenarios. Here is the picture with South Africa positioned on this scenario game board.
How does South Africa move on the game board? Hopefully most South Africans including the governing leadership would like to see the economy grow and the electricity supply growth exceed the demand for electricity. This would then move South Africa in a North East direction on the game board, as indicated by the red arrow. The options that can be realistically done within the country’s control are listed below. It is believed that these options will take the negative scenarios as far as possible out of play and enable the country to thrive in the good ones;
- Increase the capacity, and the effective and efficient operation of current generation plants
- Increase the current efficiency of transmission and substation transformation
- Deregulate the electricity supply industry and facilitate trade
- Reduce the ‘red tape’ and speed up the development of generating capacity
- Creative self sustaining electricity generating solutions at the nodes of demand
- Incentive schemes for domestic, commercial and industrial demand side solutions
- Import assistance and technology to build decentralised naturally driven generation
